Ron Ianieri asked:


Spread traders must understand how to properly calculate accurate volatility. In order to get accurate volatility levels, you must first determine a base volatility for the two options involved in the spread. Getting a base volatility must be done because different volatilities in different months cannot and do not get weighted evenly mathematically.

Since they are weighted differently, you cannot simply take the average of the two months and call that the volatility of the spread. It is more complicated than that.

The problem relates to calculating the spread- volatility with two options in different months. Those different months are usually trading at different implied volatility assumptions. You cannot compare apples with oranges nor can you compare two options with different volatility assumptions.

It is important to know how to calculate the actual and accurate volatility of the spread because the current volatility level of the spread is one of the best ways to determine whether the spread is expensive or cheap in relation to the average volatility of the stock.

There are several ways to calculate the average volatility of a stock. There are also ways to determine the average difference between the volatility levels for each given expiration month. Volatility cones and volatility tilts are very useful tools that aid in determining the mean, mode and standard deviations of a stock’s implied volatility levels and the relationship between them.

The present volatility level of the spread is comparable to those average values and a determination can then be made as to the worthiness of the spread. If you now determine that the spread is trading at a high volatility, you can sell it. If it is trading at a low volatility, you can buy it. You must know the current trading volatility of the spread first.

To accurately calculate volatility levels for pricing and evaluating a time spread, the key is to get both months on an equal footing. You need to have a base volatility that you can apply to both months. For instance, say you are looking at the June / August 70 call spread. June’s implied volatility is presently at 40 while August’s implied volatility is at 36. You cannot calculate the spread’s volatility using these two months as they are. You must either bring June’s implied volatility down to 36 or bring August’s implied volatility up to 40. You may wonder how you can do this.

You have the tools right in front of you. Use the June Vega to decrease the June option’s value to represent 36 volatility or use August’s Vega to increase the August option’s value to represent 40 volatility. Both ways work so it does not matter which way you choose.

We will use some real numbers so that we may work through an example together. Let’s say the June 70 calls are trading for $2.00 and have a .05 Vega at 40 volatility. The August 70 calls are trading for $3.00 and have a .08 Vega at 36 volatility, so the Aug/June 70 call spread will be worth $1.00. To be able to calculate the volatility of the spread, we must equalize the volatilities of the individual options.

First, let’s move the June calls by moving June’s implied volatility down from 40 to 36, a decrease of four volatility ticks. Four volatility ticks multiplied by a Vega of .05 per tick gives us a value of $.20. Next, we subtract $.20 from the June 70 option’s present value of $2.00 and we get a value of $1.80 at 36 volatility. Now the two options are valued at an equal volatility basis.

Looking at this first adjustment where we moved the June 70’s volatility down to 36 from 40, we have a value of $1.80 at 36 volatility. The August 40 call has a value of $3.00 at 36 volatility. The spread will be worth $1.20 at 36 volatility.

If you wanted to move the August 70 calls instead, you would take the August 70 call Vega of .08 and multiply it by the four tick implied volatility difference. This gives you a value of $.32 that we must add to the August 70 call’s present value in order to bring it up to an equal volatility (40) with the June 70 call. Adding the $.32 to the August 70 call will give it a $3.32 value at the new volatility level of 40, which is the same volatility level as the June 40 calls. Now, our spread is worth $1.32 at 40 volatility. August 70 calls at $3.32 minus the June 70 calls at $2.00 gives the price of the spread at 40 volatility.

It does not make any difference which option you move. The point is to establish the same volatility level for both options. Then you are ready to compare apples to apples and options to options for an accurate spread value and volatility level.

Since we now have an equal base volatility, we can calculate the spread’s Vega by taking the difference between the two individual option’s Vegas. In the example above, the spread’s Vega is .03 (.08 - .05). The Vega of the spread is calculated by finding the difference between the Vega’s of the two individual options because in the time spread, you will be long one option and short the other option.

As volatility moves one tick, you will gain the Vega value of one of the options while simultaneously losing the Vega value of the other. The spread’s Vega must be equal to the difference between the two options Vega’s, so, our spread is worth $1.20 at 36 volatility with a .03 Vega or $1.32 at 40 volatility with a .03 Vega.

Going back to our original spread value of $1.00 with a Vega of .03, we can now calculate the volatility of that spread. We know the spread is worth $1.20 at 36 volatility with a Vega of .03. Therefore, we can assume that the spread trading at $1.00 must be trading at a volatility lower than 36.

To find out how much lower we first take the difference between the two spread values, which is $.20 ($1.20 at 36 volatility minus $1.00 at ? volatility). Then we divide the $.20 by the spread’s Vega of .03 and we get 6.667 volatility ticks. We then subtract 6.667 volatility ticks from 36 volatility and we get 29.33 volatility for the spread trading at $1.00.

We can also determine the volatility of the spread as the spread’s price changes. We will fix the spread price at $1.30. To calculate this, we must first take the value of the spread ($1.20 at 36 volatility) and find the dollar difference between it and the new price of the spread ($1.30). The difference is $.10. The Vega of the spread must now divide this dollar difference. The $.10 difference divided by the .03 Vega gives you a value of 3.33 volatility ticks. Then add the 3.33 ticks to the 36 volatility and you get 39.33 as the volatility for the spread trading at $1.30.

Let us double-check our work by calculating the volatility the other way. This time we will do the calculation by moving the August 70 calls up to the equal base volatility of the June 70 calls. As calculated earlier, the August 70 calls will have a value of $3.32 at 40 volatility. The June 70 calls are worth $2.00 at 40 volatility, so the spread is worth $1.32 at 40 volatility.

Now, move the spread price to $1.30, $.02 lower than the value of the spread at 40 volatility. As before, we take the difference in the prices of the spread. The result is $.02 ($1.32 - $1.30). Then, divide $.02 by our spread’s Vega of .03 (remember that the Vega of the spread is equal to the difference between the Vega of the two individual options). $.02 divided by .03 gives us a value of .67. We must subtract that .67 from our base volatility of 40. That gives us a 39.33 (40 - .67) volatility for the spread trading at $1.30. This volatility matches our previous calculation perfectly.

At first glance, you might be wondering why we went through all of these calculations. With the June 70 calls at 40 volatility, price $2.00, Vega .05 and the August 70 calls at 36 volatility, price $3.00, Vega .08 why not just take an average of the volatility? This would give us a 38 volatility for the spread with a price of $1.00 when in actuality $1.00 in the spread represents a 29.33 volatility.

This would be almost a nine-tick difference, which represents a whopping 30% mistake! As stated earlier, Vega is not linear. You cannot weigh each month evenly and just take an average of the two months. For argument’s sake suppose you did. Let’s say you found the difference of the Vegas of the options and came up with a spread Vega of .03, which is correct. However, when you try to calculate the spread’s volatility and price you would have difficulty.

Now, recalculate the spread with the trading price of $1.30, or $.30 higher than your value at 38 volatility. Divide that $.30 higher difference by the spread’s Vega of .03. You get a 10-tick volatility increase. Add that increase to the base 38 volatility. That would mean you feel the spread is trading at 48 volatility instead of a 39.33 volatility! This type of mistake could be very, very costly. Remember, apples to apples, oranges to oranges. It does not matter which option’s volatility of the spread you move as long as you get both options to an equal base volatility.



Sara Levi

Timothy Stevens asked:


There are a lot of different ways and methods when trading in the Foreign Exchange or forex market. There is what is known as scalping, skimming and there is the use of forex Options.

The forex options are used in order to limit the risks the trader has to take while at the same time this increases the profit the trader can make in the Foreign Exchange market. Mainly, there are two ways to take advantage of this method; one of these is known as SPOT.

SPOT refers to Single Payment Optional Trading; this approach in taking advantage of the forex options is mainly dependent on the predictions of the trader. It could be either one of the two ways to predict movements in the market, technical analysis or historical analysis. Whichever the trader makes use of, it all boils down to his or her accuracy in reading and analyzing the market which would give the trader an idea where to put the money on.

The other approach to forex options is the traditional approach. The traditional approach gives the buyer a right, but not the obligation, to purchase a certain amount of currency within a given time period and at a pre-determined price, which would not change. This basically gives the buyer more flexibility and freedom when it comes to their trades. The trader can choose to make use of his or her trading option at opportune times or expire it; the best decision would depend upon the trader’s situation but the best part is, it’s your decision.



Kristina

Ron Ianieri asked:


In options trading, there are some basic lessons that are the backbone of many other successful options trading strategies. How to engage in spread trading in options trading to enhance potential gains is one of these lessons.

Spread trading is a foundational tool that you should have in your options trading toolkit. It will allow you freedom and flexibility for enhanced profit and will give you defense against potential loss while reducing your overall risk. Now, let us look at this fundamental of options trading, the spread trade.

We have demonstrated how well options function in unison with a stock position. They enhance potential gains, provide profit protection and limit the risk of the entire investment. They enable us to manage risk in a single stock as well as an entire portfolio. But, as good as options are in conjunction with stocks, they can be even better when traded against each other.

Spreads are strategies that do not involve the use of any security other than another option. Their positives are that they are inexpensive, offer protection for both buyer and seller and are in effect automatically hedged trades.

Spreads can provide large percentage returns with low risk and can be entered into with small capital outlay. A spread involves the purchase of one option in conjunction with the sale of another option. There are many types of spreads. Some take advantage of stock movements while others are set up to take advantage of movements in implied volatility and even time decay. There are calendar or time spreads, diagonal spreads, ratio spreads and also vertical spreads, which we will discuss in depth here.

Spreads are more advanced and sophisticated than the strategies discussed in our beginner product ‘OPTIONS 101.’ Where certain spreads, like 1 to 1 vertical spreads, can be less risky than a buy-write, there are more variables to consider and control which makes trading the spread more complicated.

When you trade a spread you are dealing with three elements: the spread as a whole (which you can buy or sell) and its component parts - the option you buy and the option you sell.

Although the cost of most spreads is relatively inexpensive to initiate, they can provide a large percentage return and there is protection (limits) to both sides of the trade. Therefore, even experienced investors can profit from learning about spreads and their investment potential.



ARDIN Cicilia Hong

Jason Ng asked:


There are 2 kinds of option trading systems in general; Discretionary and Mechanical. A discretionary option trader follows no specific rules but chooses, enters and exits an option trade using all of his knowledge or gut feeling. A mechanical option trader is one who translates his knowledge of choosing stocks, entry and exit into objective rules. Such a system is commonly translated into a computer program in order to completely automate the option trading system. The advantage of mechanical option trading is obvious; the removal of human emotions in the trading process thereby reducing human errors.

I moved from discretionary to mechanical option trading years ago and only started becoming consistently successful in option trading after I developed my personal mechanical option trading system called the Star Trading System (http://www.mastersoequity.com).

So, what are the steps to be taken in order to develop your personal mechanical trading system for option trading? Here is a guideline…

1. Stock Selection

List down all the criteria you think must be true in order for a stock to qualify as an option trading candidate. Make sure all of these criteria are quantifiable. Example : a. Last close more than $10, b. Last price rising for the past 3 days c. PE must be positive. Finally, program a charting software with these criteria so that you can run a scan of all stocks that qualified within seconds daily. Technological advances have made possible to screen stocks within seconds. Traders used to have to spend hours going through each stock against a spread sheet in order to find trading candidates.

2. Option Selection Procedure

Now that you have chosen your stock, you need to determine which option qualifies for your option trading system. Your personal option trading system may be based on OTM options or ITM options or even based on bullish or bearish spreads.

3. Entry Procedure

Now that you have determined what stock to watch and which option to buy, it is time to determine under what conditions to make that move to buy on. It may be as simple as to enter upon market opening or as complex as to watch the underlying stock movement for a pre-determined period of time before it qualifies for entry. Whatever it is, it must compliment your personal option trading style.

4. Exit Procedure

Now that you have an open position, you need to determine what must be true for you to take profit or to stop loss. There are 2 classes of exit procedure that you must establish; Stop Loss and Profit Taking. Stop loss in option trading can be simply based on a % loss of the option position or based on a % loss on the underlying stock. Profit taking can be based on the stock’s target price or a % gain on the option position. After you have done that, you would want to see how your broker can help to automate that for you. Commonly, people break their own stop loss or profit taking points due to emotional involvement, that is why many brokers have features which allow fairly complex stop loss or profit taking strategies to be automated. If your broker does not support such automation and you are the type who cannot properly enforce your own stop loss or profit taking strategy, then it may be good to consider switching to a broker that does.

Now, give that option trading system a name and paper trade it for at least 6 months. Do not expect to get it right the first time. Developing a profitable option trading system takes time, knowledge and experience and is something which cannot be rushed. My Star Trading System (http://www.mastersoequity.com) took me years of work to arrive at a stage where even complete amateurs can follow easily and make a consistent profit from.

So, have fun translating your option trading philosophy into an option trading system and to watch it in action. I am sure it will be an extremely fulfilling experience whether or not the system turned out to be profitable.



ARAM

Craig Thornburrow asked:


Options trading is an investment vehicle for experienced investors, who track their investments proactively. It is not a suitable vehicle for investors looking to maintain assets without direct management, as it’s very much a timing related purchase and float. Options trading is an excellent technique for using financial leverage to make bigger purchases.

A very simple example of an options trade would be this: If you’re selling a commodity worth $100,000 (say 1,000 shares of a stock worth $100 per share), and a prospective buyer likes the price, they can offer to pay for an option to buy all of those commodities, while spending the time researching other investments. Say, for example, they’re offering you $1,000 to hold that price for them while they gather the rest of the funds, which they say will take three months.

When three months passes, they either pay the remaining $99,000 for the shares of the stock, or forfeit the option. If the stock goes up in price to $110 per share from $100, they can either buy the stock, or sell the option to someone else for the difference between the old price and the new price. Either way, the person holding the option stands to make a tidy profit.

Options trading has its own set of terminology, which we’ll get into a bit later, but the basic premise is this: You buy an option to purchase a stock or commodity at a given price; the option expires after a given time period (American style options trading), or the option must be exercised on a specific date (European style options trading).

There are two principle types of options that are traded. Calls increase in value as the stock price rises, and puts increase in value as the stock price declines. (There’s a lot of fiscal mathematics behind both of these, but the layman’s explanation will suffice.) In most cases, options are sold to other investors just before they expire; most options traders don’t end up holding shares in the stock they have options for; the options are bought, sold, liquidated and transacted before their expiration dates. It is possible to have both call and put options on the same commodity or stock; this is a “straddle” strategy.

Options trading is not a casual investment strategy; it’s a strategy used by people who are investing as their profession, or who intend to manage their own wealth directly. The benefits of options trading is flexibility, coupled with (in the case of put options) a bit of a countercyclical strategy for bear markets.

The key to options trading is market research on specific stocks; an options trader will be researching stocks that are either slated for a price spike (call options) or are likely to undergo a price decline (put options). How quickly these options express themselves is a measure of market volatility, and most options traders will try to take a neutral position – they’ll put in put and call options to cover both directions, and to cover themselves against broad market trends.

Options arbitrage is a lower risk strategy done by floor traders, and can be short term profitable, with good liquidity. The aim is to swap options with other traders before certain factors influence the market, or to get rid of underperforming options while still getting some profit out of them. Options arbitrage is perhaps the best place to start in options trading for a novice.



Benjamin

Jason Ng asked:


Have you ever lost money trading stock options?

Chances are good that you tried to apply the 3 trading horizons of stock trading to options trading and then got yourself hurt real bad.

There are 3 time horizons or what we call trading horizons in stock trading and they are; Long Term, Mid Term and Short Term. Long term horizon in stock trading means the buying and holding of stocks for 3 to 5 years, or sometimes longer. This is ideal for value investing in the long term prospects of a company. Mid term investing in stock trading is the buying and holding of stocks for 6 months to a year or two. Most stock investors use a mid term view to invest in new growth stocks which are expected to perform well in the immediate year. Short term investing in stock trading is the buying and holding of stocks for 3 to 6 months. These are stocks of companies that are expected to make a breakthrough in their industries. However, do these notions of investing apply in options trading? Not at all!

The truth is this: Stock Options are derivative instruments that have very short contractual lives! In fact, the longest expiration for exchange traded stock options rarely exceed 1 year! On top of that, the extrinsic value, or what we call time value, built into every stock options contract decays as expiration draws nearer, diminishing the value of your options even if the underlying stock remain stagnant. Due to these characteristics, stock options are trading instruments, not investing instruments, and have much shorter trading horizons than if you trade stocks. This is also why options trading is associated so closely with technical analysis these days because technical analysis is extremely useful in identifying short term trends or reversal of trends.

So, how is the long term, mid term and short term trading horizon defined for options trading?

In Options Trading, long term horizon is the buying of options with expiration of up to 1 year in order to speculate a long term rally or ditch in the underlying stock. Typically, long term charts on monthly time periods are used to identify such trends. Mid term horizon is the buying and holding of monthly options all the way to their expiration, each trade lasting no more than a month. Charts on weekly time periods are particularly useful for identifying mid term trading opportunities. Short term horizon lasts from 3 to 15 days in order to speculate a quick short term surge or ditch in the underlying stock and typically uses short term daily time period charts to identify trading opportunities.

From the above definitions, it is clear that stock options, as a short term trading or hedging instrument, is useless for anyone who is investing in the long term horizon defined for stock trading. Therefore, before you decide to completely replace your stock investing with options trading, first decide if trading stock options allow you to trade the way you always have with stocks. If it doesn’t, it is time for you to either stick with stock investing or learn a trading system which is perfectly suited for options trading.



Sansi Collen